Hold onto your hats, Phillies fans, because the early NL East projections are in, and they’re a rollercoaster of emotions. While the Phillies are still favored to win the division for the third straight year, it’s by the slimmest of margins—and that’s where things get interesting.
This offseason has been a whirlwind for Philadelphia. With key players hitting free agency and the front office’s decisions sparking mixed reactions among fans, it’s clear the Phillies are in a transition phase. They’re no longer the undisputed powerhouse they once were, but FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections still crown them the NL East’s top team in 2026. But here’s where it gets controversial: Is this projection a vote of confidence or a warning sign that their grip on the division is slipping?*
FanGraphs’ early standings aren’t set in stone, but they offer a fascinating glimpse into how each MLB team’s offseason moves are perceived. Despite the doom-and-gloom chatter surrounding the Phillies, they’re projected to edge out the competition with a 91-71 record—just enough to secure the division title. Yet, the real story is how close the race is expected to be. The Mets (89-73) and Braves (86-76) are hot on their heels, with the Mets’ aggressive offseason moves, including the acquisition of Bo Bichette and Freddy Peralta, positioning them as serious contenders.
And this is the part most people miss: The Phillies’ success may hinge on their pitching rotation more than ever. With an aging core, the team is counting on a healthy Zack Wheeler and a rebound from Aaron Nola to carry the load. Meanwhile, the arrival of pitching prospect Andrew Painter could be a game-changer, especially as a potential replacement for Ranger Suárez. But will it be enough to hold off a surging Mets squad?
The projections also place the Phillies as the No. 2 seed in the league, behind only the Dodgers. However, the catch is that their lead in the NL East is razor-thin—a far cry from last year’s 13-game cushion. This raises a thought-provoking question: Is winning the division by a few games a sign of resilience, or does it expose vulnerabilities in the Phillies’ roster?
For fans, the offseason has been a tough pill to swallow, but the possibility of another division title is a silver lining. Still, the race will be tighter than ever, and the Mets aren’t just knocking on the door—they’re kicking it down. So, here’s the big question for you: Do you think the Phillies can hold off the Mets and Braves, or is their reign in the NL East finally in jeopardy? Let’s hear your take in the comments!
